Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin returned to discuss key insights from the recent iGB L!VE event, focusing on the World Cup and the gambling landscape in Europe. They began by analyzing the Dutch gambling tax hike, which has significantly fallen short of expectations, before shifting to Ireland's new licensing framework.
During the World Cup, H2 has monitored prediction market activity. Surprisingly, the Democratic Republic of the Congo topped the charts as the most backed nation not expected to win. In contrast, France, Spain, and Portugal were the teams favored to take the title. The hosts also highlighted matches that generated the highest amount of losing trades, indicating a trend that favors traditional sportsbooks over prediction markets, raising questions about the accuracy of market sentiments.
Turning to the situation in the Netherlands, the government increased its gambling tax from 30.5% to 34.2% in January 2025, with a planned rise to 37.8% in January 2026. Original forecasts from the Dutch Treasury projected an additional revenue of €108 million in 2025 and €216 million in 2026. However, reality paints a stark contrast, with actual figures showing an extra €2 million in 2025 and a mere €57 million anticipated for 2026. Ed Birkin attributed the revenue shortfall not only to the raised tax rate but also to new deposit restrictions, advertising limits, and an expected decline in revenue following the 2024 UEFA Euro. This shift has adversely affected physical locations, as casino and gaming hall visits are reportedly down 11% year-on-year, prompting closures among some operators. The discussions underscored the paradox that tax hikes do not always yield the anticipated outcomes.
The discussion also touched on Ireland's new licensing regime initiated by the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland (GRAI) on July 1. With 89% of online betting occurring in regulated markets, the total regulated market constitutes only 35% due to the prevalence of offshore and unregulated iGaming. Platform providers like Pragmatic Solutions have stepped in to help operators transition under these new regulations, while H2 shared estimations regarding the potential market value as regulation deepens.
Robin highlighted the positive developments at iGB L!VE, particularly the Africa Summit that gathered regulators from Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya along with industry representatives from the African Tax Administration Forum. This summit coincided with discussions led by the African iGaming Alliance on issues such as sustainable taxation, consumer protection, and the advancement of the Africa Safer Gambling Week.
Ed wrapped up the conversation, posing a challenging question regarding the industry's stance on taxation, specifically if operators in some regions absorb or evade high tax rates, can they ethically oppose similar rates elsewhere?
