CFTC Chairman Michael Selig has labeled the assertion that mention markets linked to President Donald Trump’s speeches are traded on U.S. exchanges as "fake news." Nonetheless, Kalshi, which operates under the oversight of the CFTC, continues to provide robust trading options for these markets within the United States.
Selig made these remarks during a meeting of the CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee, which included discussions on cryptocurrency, AI, and prediction markets.
Terry Duffy, CEO of CME, criticized the CFTC for permitting trading on mention markets, referencing various insider trading scandals to highlight potential risks. "If you look at the Maduro situation and the Trump teleprompter situation, there are many aspects susceptible to manipulation, as well as individual-based sporting events that are not just outcome-based. This is detrimental to our industry," Duffy stated.
In response, Selig asserted, "I just want to correct the record here. Those products are not listed in the United States. They never were. Those were offshore, and that’s fake news."
Selig appeared to think that the markets referenced were associated with Polymarket’s international platform, which the CFTC regulates. However, claims have surfaced that Kalshi has indeed offered and traded on Trump's teleprompter markets, fully complying with U.S. regulations.
CFTC investigators found that Gabriel Perez reportedly placed bets on at least twelve different Trump speeches over three months. Kalshi reported these transactions to the CFTC, with their head of enforcement, Robert Denault, highlighting their proactive stance on compliance through social media. "The Kalshi surveillance team promptly flagged, investigated, and referred these trades to the CFTC," Denault stated.
Despite Duffy’s attempts to encourage Selig to retract his statement, Selig reiterated, "The Maduro contract and the teleprompter contract were not listed in the United States."
While the insider trading issue on the Maduro market occurred on Polymarket’s platform, the CFTC has also taken action against U.S. soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who allegedly placed wagers regarding the Venezuelan leader’s exit. When announcing charges against Van Dyke, Selig stated, "I have been crystal clear that anyone who engages in fraud, manipulation, or insider trading will face the full force of the law. The individual acted on confidential information that endangered national security."
Kalshi has also featured a market regarding Maduro's departure from Venezuela, which conflicted with Selig’s assertions—this particular market saw over $7.7 million in trading volume. The rationale behind Selig’s strong remarks regarding market listings remains unclear.
Despite the controversy, Kalshi continues its operations, allowing wagers on Trump’s forthcoming speeches while having removed mention markets in sports. The platform maintains a dedicated page for markets focused on Trump’s statements, including those related to an upcoming rally with Darlene Graham.
Selig's comments suggest a belief that these markets should not be available in the U.S., yet the CFTC's involvement in both the Maduro and teleprompter scenarios indicates awareness of their existence.
Duffy has voiced concern over the CFTC’s approach to regulation, stating, "There have been 2,500 self-certifications since this administration took office in January 2025, none of which have been opposed."
Additionally, the CFTC has found itself in conflict with state regulators concerning prediction markets that may infringe upon the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA).
Senator Chris Dodd also commented that the CEA amendment should not sanction sports event contracts, emphasizing the need for limits due to the proliferation of prediction markets, especially involving sports betting.
Currently, Selig serves as the sole commissioner of the CFTC, an agency typically comprised of five commissioners to ensure bipartisan oversight. Trump has endorsed Selig’s efforts in championing the legitimacy of prediction markets.
