Brazil's regulated betting market, which existed for less than two years, saw significant upheaval following President Lula’s signing of Provisional Measure 1.394 on September 25, 2026. This measure effectively banned fixed-odds betting and online casinos, halted new deposits, and mandated that all platforms cease operations by October 6. Players were allowed to withdraw their funds until 11:59 PM on October 5.
Exclusive insights from Blask, shared with TheGamblest, reveal the impact of these changes on market demand. Specifically, the data indicates that licensed betting brands experienced a dramatic decline in demand while offshore brands managed to retain their customer base, albeit with internal shifts among those brands. The Blask Index, which tracks real-time demand for iGaming services within a specific country, provides this assessment.
Analyzing the two-week period from September 10 to October 8, 2026, the daily data allows for a comparison against demand levels from the preceding weeks. Following the signing of the provisional measure, licensed brands experienced a staggered drop in demand. On September 27, the first Sunday post-signing, they saw a demand decrease of approximately 60%; by September 28, this fell to 70%, and by September 30, it dropped even further to 84%. The decline in licensed demand persisted, remaining between 83% and 94% below their usual levels starting October 1. For the week of October 2 to 8, overall demand for licensed brands was 89% lower than their pre-ban weekly average. Major players such as Betano, Bet365, Superbet, and Sportingbet suffered losses of approximately 91%, 89%, 90%, and 93%, respectively.
Other prominent names also experienced significant declines. BullsBet, previously the eighth-largest brand, faced a 95% reduction in demand, while Blaze fared relatively better, with a 74% drop. Interestingly, there was a spike in demand across both licensed and offshore brands on September 26, the day after the ban was announced, followed by a return to lower levels within days.
In contrast, the demand for offshore brands displayed resilience. During the week of October 2 to 8, their demand remained only about 10% below their September levels, a number skewed by dips on October 4 and 5 related to unknown factors. For most of the other days in that week, their demand remained stable.
Prior to the ban, offshore brands maintained a modest market share of 3-5%. Post-ban, this share surged to a range of 20-29% since October 1, reflecting a more than sixfold increase. However, this surge is less indicative of actual growth in the offshore market and more a reflection of the collapse of the licensed sector. The overall demand for offshore services remained steady while the licensed brands faltered, resulting in an increased market share for offshore providers.
Inside the offshore category, demand dynamics changed significantly. Some international brands enjoyed a surge, with Melbet’s demand nearly quadrupling, Bingo Em Casa increasing by over 2.5 times, and both 22bet and AAJogo more than doubling their demand compared to September. Conversely, several other offshore brands faced significant losses, with a few Brazil-centric brands dropping out of the index altogether.
It is essential to note that the Blask Index measures search demand rather than actual visits or bets placed. Therefore, a decline in search interest does not necessarily equate to a loss of player engagement, as players often re-access platforms through alternative means such as bookmarks and messaging apps. Thus, the metrics presented may underestimate the true state of the offshore market.
Ultimately, the data illustrates that Brazil's ban effectively stifled the licensed market almost overnight, but did not extinguish demand altogether. Offshore brands maintained their presence, and as licensed competitors collapsed, the battle for market share has intensified among those remaining in the offshore space. The future of this demand remains contingent on whether Congress solidifies the provisional measure into law and the manner of its enforcement.
