Giannis Antetokounmpo recently entered a significant equity partnership with Kalshi, making an appearance at the NBA All-Star Game over the weekend despite an injury. Kalshi announced the collaboration with Antetokounmpo on February 6, right after the Milwaukee Bucks chose not to trade him amidst speculation fueled by anonymous sources. A contract on Kalshi regarding whether Antetokounmpo would stay with the Bucks by the trade deadline saw trading volume reach $23.3 million.
As the first active professional athlete to invest directly in a prediction market operator, Antetokounmpo, a two-time NBA MVP, also led his celebrity team to victory in Los Angeles just hours before NBA Commissioner Adam Silver discussed the historic Kalshi deal at the All-Star Weekend press conference. In his remarks, Silver called the investment a "minuscule investment," representing much less than 1% of the company. With MLB’s Commissioner Rob Manfred hinting at potential league partnerships with prediction markets, this deal prompts speculation about whether other athletes may follow suit.
Antetokounmpo is not the sole NBA player with ties to Kalshi, valued at approximately $11 billion. Kevin Durant is an indirect investor through 35V, a venture capital firm he co-founded. Kalshi's $300 million funding round last October saw participation from major venture capital firms, including Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia. The investment from 35V was previously reported by The Athletic.
Antetokounmpo's investment differs from Durant's as it is a direct stake in Kalshi. Under the NBA's collective bargaining agreement, players may have equity in gaming companies as long as it is a minority investment without operational control.
Section 19 of Article VI in the agreement stipulates that players may hold ownership interests in gaming companies as long as this interest is passive and does not exceed 1% in any class of securities related to NBA League-related betting. Given Antetokounmpo’s investment appears below this threshold, Silver indicated there are no league concerns regarding the partnership. Nonetheless, this minority investment holds significant growth potential.
Kalshi's valuation outpaces DraftKings, valued at $10.8 billion as of February 13. A previous funding round in October valued Kalshi at around $5 billion. While Kalshi has not provided specific forecasts for the year, it noted trading volume surpassed $1 billion for the Super Bowl.
In September, it was reported that NFL player Saquon Barkley invested in a fund with stakes in Polymarket, a competitor of Kalshi. The NFL, similar to the NBA, does not enforce strict prohibitions against indirect investments. MLB has a comparable policy, permitting player equity stakes in gambling companies not exceeding 1%.
MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred recently discussed possible league partnerships with a prediction market, although a league spokesman did not comment on whether similar equity deals like Antetokounmpo's are being considered.
Currently, only the NHL, MLS, and UFC maintain official partnerships with prediction markets. The NHL has not commented on this matter despite multiple inquiries.
As anticipation grows about other athletes exploring similar equity deals, there are concerns about the reputation risks involved. Marc Edelman, director of sports ethics at Baruch College, recalled a previous incident involving Pablo Sandoval and Fantasy Aces, which went bankrupt after allegedly mishandling funds. Edelman warned that athletes should avoid associations with companies that might harm their reputations.
Moreover, there is the concern of insider trading, where a player's equity stake might lead to disclosures about injury information. Kalshi has introduced enhanced protections against insider trading, with CEO Tarek Mansour stating that such practices undermine market trust. Given the severe penalties faced by a former NBA player for leaking injury information about LeBron James, Antetokounmpo likely understands these risks well.
Mansour and Polymarket's Shayne Coplan discussed prediction markets at the NBA’s Technology Summit during the All-Star Weekend. Silver did not comment on potential NBA partnerships with prediction market operators, leaving the future of such collaborations uncertain.
