Draws are rarely seen in American sports and are not commonly favored by bettors in soccer. Yet, the expanded format of this year's World Cup has thrown a spotlight on draws, making them a popular option in several matches this week. This raises concerns about the integrity of the sport. Will teams intentionally play for a stalemate to secure advancement to the next round?
In the upcoming match between Paraguay and Australia, the odds of a draw are currently set at +130 at DraftKings. Paraguay is listed at +185, while Australia’s odds stand at +320. Both teams understand that earning a point will guarantee their advancement to the last 32.
As the realization set in that a draw would be adequate for both teams, the likelihood of a tie shifted from 28% to 43% at Kalshi.
Initially, Paraguay was favored, with odds around +110, corresponding to an approximate 45% chance in prediction markets.
AI tools have been consulted for predictions throughout the World Cup, but neither ChatGPT nor Gemini offered recommendations for the Australia vs. Paraguay game. From a personal standpoint, Paraguay's odds seem promising since a win could lead to a more favorable matchup in the next round.
This World Cup is unprecedented, featuring 48 teams organized into 12 groups, compared to 32 teams in the previous iteration where only the top two from each group advanced. Under the new structure, eight teams finishing in third place will also progress to a last 32 phase.
In Group D, the USA has already secured the top position, while Australia and Paraguay are tied for second with three points each, though Australia holds an edge due to goal difference. Four points will likely be sufficient to ensure qualification as one of the best third-place teams.
Current estimates from Opta give Australia a 93% chance of moving on, with Paraguay at 88%. Even a narrow loss for Australia could see them progress, while Paraguay would almost certainly be eliminated if they lose.
Group J mirrors this scenario, with Argentina confirmed to finish first ahead of Austria and Algeria, who both have three points. The odds of a draw in this group have shifted to +125 at DraftKings, down from around +230 when the matches were first priced.
In Group G, a draw is also likely to benefit both Iran and Egypt. Iran currently has two points with a neutral goal difference, while Egypt, boasting five points, is already through. Egypt is currently favored to win at +150, with a draw sitting at +165.
As other match results come in, the odds of a tie may shorten even further, depending on the requirements for third-placed teams. Opta's simulations show that three points and a goal difference of zero have historically been enough for progression 94.8% of the time.
Austria's history concerning draws includes the controversial "Disgrace of Gijón" at the 1982 World Cup. In that match, Austria and West Germany knew that a West German win by one or two goals would see both teams through while eliminating Algeria. After West Germany scored early, both teams faced widespread criticism for apparent collusion in the match. Fans protested vocally while broadcasters denounced the game as a farce.
FIFA subsequently mandated that final group matches be played simultaneously to prevent teams from gaining knowledge of required results in advance. The new format for this World Cup, allowing third-place qualifier advancement, has inadvertently reinstated the potential for similar situations.
Notably, Austria and Algeria, both key players in the 1982 incident, will now find themselves in another match where a draw benefits both teams. Algeria had lodged a formal protest with FIFA after the controversial match, and their media is framing this rematch as an opportunity for revenge 44 years later.
Interestingly, there could be value in betting against the draw as teams may fear being branded as cowardly for settling for a stalemate.
