Day 13 of the World Cup features the final games of the second round, including tournament heavyweights Portugal and England. In our prediction competition, AI has hit a winning streak. ChatGPT has now recommended five winning bets in a row, while Gemini has picked three winners in its last four.
I have been asking the two leading chatbots to recommend bets each day of the tournament. After a sticky start, both AI tools seem to have found a bit of rhythm. I have also been making picks to compare with the bots.
Each day, we all choose one pick, and I place a $10 stake on the wager. I have been asking the tools to analyze their bets as they select new picks.
Gemini has started asking for more details about odds to better inform its selections, which appears to be paying dividends. Google’s AI tool failed to choose a winner in its first seven selections, but it is starting to claw back those losses.
In a previous experiment, it outperformed ChatGPT, generating a 32.7% profit over 10 picks, mainly in tennis. ChatGPT, meanwhile, had lost 35.7% of its bankroll. It is faring better this time, losing only three of its 11 picks, although most have been at short odds.
As it stands, from $110 staked:
ChatGPT: +$10.17
Gemini: -$51.50
Me: +$22.50
ChatGPT
Day 12 Pick:Â Norway to beat Senegal (+120)Â WON +$12
Looking at the results, I don’t think the recent winning streak is luck alone. There is a discernible strategy that emerged, although it’s important not to overstate it from a sample of 9-11 graded bets.
- Avoid huge favorites
- Look for teams whose first result understated their strength
- Focus on price, not winner
- Avoid adding unnecessary conditions
- Use tournament evidence over reputation
Continuing the experiment, I will stick much closer to moneylines than parlays, player props, and win-plus-total combinations. The results so far strongly favor the simpler approach.
Day 13 Pick: Croatia to beat Panama & Under 3.5 Goals (+120)
I viewed Croatia’s loss as less concerning than it looked because England had already shown they were one of the stronger teams in the tournament. A defeat to England didn’t necessarily mean Croatia were poor. Meanwhile, Panama’s attack hasn’t shown much threat.
I believe that if Croatia is going to win, a controlled scoreline such as 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, or 3-0 is substantially more likely than the market’s 45.5% break-even threshold.
Gemini
Day 12 Pick:Â Argentina to Win & Under 3.5 Match Goals (+105)Â WON +$10.50
Early on, we tried to rely on the sheer talent of mid-tier favorites (like Czechia) or heavy-hitting multi-leg doubles (like Portugal/England). The tournament data slapped us with a harsh truth: at this level, straight moneylines on tournament heavyweights are a financial trap.
That Argentina pick was a masterclass in market correction and reading the tactical blueprint. When the bookmakers completely squeezed out the standard moneyline value, combining Argentina to Win & Under 3.5 Match Goals was the ultimate way to leverage elite tournament structure.
Day 13 Pick:Â England to beat Ghana and Both Teams To Score (+215)
The books are trying to squeeze the life out of England vs. Ghana at -170, but we refuse to play their game. Instead, we read their own data (they expect a high-scoring match) and pair it with tactical reality: England’s elite transition attack going up against Ghana’s suspect defensive tracking under pressure. By doing this, we force a heavily taxed prediction into a massive +215 value play on England to Win & BTTS.
My Picks
Day 12 Pick: Norway vs. Senegal – Over 3.5 Goals (+210) WON +$21
Norway and Senegal both showed they can find the net in their openers, while displaying signs of defensive frailty. I have been looking for value bets across the matches, and this one stood out due to the firepower both teams have in attack. It proved the case as Norway won a close battle thanks to goals from Erling Haaland.
Day 13 Pick: Colombia vs. DR Congo – Both Teams To Score (+125)
Like Norway and Senegal, Colombia and the DR Congo both scored and conceded in their openers. The stage is set for a close battle. DR Congo pulled off a great result against Portugal, and given they created decent chances against a better Portuguese side, I expect they can threaten Colombia’s goal. They have scored in 16 of their last 18 matches.
The Colombians are in pole position in the group, and with a game against Portugal to come, they will be keen to secure a win here and book their place in the next round. They have only failed to score in one of their last 12 matches. I looked at over 2.5 goals, which is +120, but both teams to score is available at bigger odds and looks like a good play considering the attacking threat of both sides.
