In our World Cup prediction experiment, ChatGPT has hit a winning streak, picking six winners in the last six days. Is it just a coincidence, or has the AI tool found a winning formula?
Its picks have largely been short prices, meaning that over 12 predictions, it has generated a profit of just over $20. I have asked it and the fellow AI chatbot Gemini to recommend a bet each day of the tournament, and simulated the returns on a $10 stake for each selection at DraftKings. I have also been making selections to see how I compare to the technology.
As it stands, from $120 staked:
ChatGPT: +$20.17
Gemini: -$61.50
Me: +$12.50
ChatGPT
Day 13 Pick: Croatia to beat Panama & Under 3.5 Goals (+120) WON +$12
After picking just one winner in its first six, its pick on Day 13 was its sixth success in a row. These six picks have generated profits of just over $50. I asked it to reflect on its latest winning bet:
The Croatia win & Under 3.5 (+120) bet winning 1-0 is actually one of the most instructive wins we’ve had. Croatia beat Panama 1-0 through an Ante Budimir goal. It identified that:
- Croatia were probably undervalued after losing to England.
- Panama had shown very little attacking threat.
- If Croatia won, the most likely scorelines were clustered around 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0
That’s exactly what happened. Our strongest bets have increasingly fallen into two categories:
Category A: Simple moneylines
- Switzerland ML
- Morocco ML
- Netherlands ML
- Egypt ML
- Norway ML
Category B: Selective “win + goals” bets
- Croatia Win & Under 3.5 ✅
- Argentina Win & Under 3.5 ✅
The important word is selective. The earlier combo bets that lost generally required two largely independent things to happen.
Day 14 Pick: Switzerland to beat Canada (+140)
This has the strongest resemblance to the successful Norway +120 bet.
Reasons:
- Switzerland have already rewarded us once.
- They’ve looked stronger than Canada in the tournament.
- Plus money gives us a margin for error.
Gemini
Google’s AI tool has not been performing as well. It started very badly, recommending losing bets in its first seven picks. It bucked that trend somewhat, choosing winners in three of the next four days, but went for another losing bet yesterday.
Day 13 Pick: England to beat Ghana and Both Teams To Score (+215)
Tournament football strikes again. Our high-value +215 script was completely neutralized by an old-fashioned, cagey 0–0 stalemate. While our process for finding value was correct—completely rejecting the bookmakers’ heavily taxed lines—both squads defaulted to ultimate risk aversion. With qualification firmly within reach, neither team was willing to overcommit bodies forward, grinding out a defensive chess match that left the scoreboard entirely blank.
We wipe the slate clean and pivot straight into Matchday 3 action for Wednesday, June 24, 2026. Group stages are wrapping up, meaning the final round of fixtures will be played simultaneously to prevent collusion. We are hunting a clear motivation angle in Group C.
Day 14 Pick: Morocco to beat Haiti & Under 3.5 Match Goals (+105)
Morocco proved their elite tournament identity by thoroughly frustrating Brazil in a highly disciplined 1-1 opening draw. They possess world-class defensive organization and a midfield engine capable of entirely suffocating lesser opposition. Haiti enters this match facing a massive talent and structural deficit, and they will likely spend the entire 90 minutes pinned into a deep block attempting damage control.
Walid Regragui’s side is built on pragmatic, professional execution rather than high-risk goal chasing. For Morocco, today is purely about securing the three points required to advance out of Group C. Once they secure a 1-0 or 2-0 lead, they will drop into a highly controlled mid-block, pass horizontally, and completely choke out the game clock to preserve their energy for the knockouts.
Taking Morocco straight on the moneyline offers absolutely zero value. By grouping an expected Morocco victory with Under 3.5 Match Goals, we completely capitalize on their defensive rigidity while insulating our stake from an uncharacteristic, high-scoring blowout.
My Picks
Day 13 Pick: Colombia vs. DR Congo – Both Teams To Score (+125) LOST -$10
I remain up overall, but may have overestimated DR Congo’s attacking threat in this one. Colombia were dominant, and their opponents created little of note. I have largely concentrated on what I perceive as value bets and will continue with this strategy despite the loss.
Day 14 Pick: South Korea to beat South Africa and Under 3.5 Goals (+120)
South Korea has far better players than South Africa and should have no problem getting a win that will assure them of a spot in the next round. South Africa really struggles in front of goal; they have not managed to score more than once in their last seven matches. The Koreans rarely blow teams away, however. In their last nine victories, there have been more than 3.5 goals only against Trinidad and Tobago. This bet covers the scorelines 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, and 3-0, which look the most likely.
