During a recent session titled "A Year in the Life of Sports Betting," analysts Geoff Atkinson and Matt Roob discussed the intricacies of sports wagering. Atkinson, who holds the position of marketing research manager at Management Science Associates, and Roob, the senior vice-president of financial analysis at Spectrum Gaming Capital, employed data visualizations from the Spectrumetrix data service to convey their findings.
Atkinson began by analyzing data from states that report wagering figures on individual sports, including Illinois, Mississippi, Nevada, South Dakota, Oregon, and Montana. The data revealed a consistent correlation with the U.S. sports calendar, showing that overall wagering totals hit their lows in the summer, coinciding with the baseball season. The fall football and basketball seasons, however, led to a noticeable spike in wagering activity that continued through February. Another significant rise in betting was observed during NCAA March Madness in the spring before the annual cycle recommences.
While examining individual sports and markets, specific trends began to emerge. For instance, during March Madness, Oregon and Illinois showed the lowest percentages of basketball betting relative to their overall handle. Atkinson suggested this was likely because both states feature NBA teams competing at that time, unlike the others involved.
In a broader look at the fall and winter NFL seasons, the analysts noted uniform trends across the mentioned states, though the percentage of overall betting on football varied significantly, from 30% to 80%. The performance of local teams played a significant role in this dynamic. In Las Vegas, for example, bettors come from various locations and engage with all teams, leading to stable betting patterns for the NHL's Las Vegas Golden Knights, regardless of the team's playoff status. The Golden Knights failed to reach the playoffs in 2022 but secured the Stanley Cup in 2023 without altering the betting behavior around the team.
Conversely, in more localized markets, such as Reno, team performance proved to be a stronger influence on betting behavior. The betting handle increased significantly when the Nevada Wolf Pack men’s basketball team qualified for the NCAA tournament in 2023, unlike the previous year when they did not.
The analysts also applied their insights to states that do not report betting figures by sport. For these markets, the data indicated more subtle nuances. For example, Indiana experienced higher betting totals during college basketball season due to the sport's popularity, while Pennsylvania saw an uptick in football betting during the fall, benefiting from the presence of the Steelers and Eagles, two well-known NFL franchises, despite a scarcity of successful teams in other sports.
Team performance continued to impact these trends. The Detroit market recorded increased football betting in 2023, thanks in large part to the Lions' impressive 12-5 season and their appearance in the NFC Championship. In contrast, Pittsburgh's betting totals remained stagnant, as the Steelers finished with seasons of 9-8 and 10-7 during the last two years.
