Analysts are calling for moderate revenue growth in Macau for the Chinese New Year holiday and 4% year-on-year growth for the first half of 2025.
Through Sunday (19 January), Macau casinos had generated MOP12.1 billion (£1.2 billion/€1.4 billion/$1.5 billion) in gross gaming revenue (GGR).
According to Macau Business, JP Morgan analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi and Selina Li said demand was “solid” in the run-up to to the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday. The eight-day celebration kicking off the Year of the Snake begins 29 January.
“We expect Chinese New Year GGR to grow moderately at low-to-mid-single digits year-on-year,” the analysts wrote. “(We) model industry GGR growth of +4% year-on-year for 1H25 versus +7% in 2H25 to produce +5% in FY25.”
S&P Global expects GGR growth of 5%-6% this year, with mass gaming 15%-20% above pre-pandemic volumes. “Junket (or VIP) volume will likely stay near current low levels unless regulations change,” the credit agency noted. “Total GGR, therefore, will likely be 80%-85% of 2019 levels.”
Headwinds could hamper growth
The Macao Government Tourism Office (MGTO) hails the Year of the Snake as one “full of auspicious wishes, unfolding bright prospects and development potential” for the “international metropolis”.
But S&P warned that unrelenting economic turbulence affecting China could “impair Macau cash flow and (compromise) improvement” at a time casino operators are trying to lure more premium-mass players.
Meanwhile, the local government has forecast full-year GGR of MOP240 billion, up 11% over the 2024 forecast.
Tourism-plus the new approach
The upcoming holiday is an opportunity for Macau to continue its policy of “tourism-plus” aimed at expanding the economy and attracting more international travellers.
MGTO director Maria Helena de Senna Fernandes expects up to 39 million visitors this year, close to the 39.4 million recorded in 2019 and well over the 33 million who visited in 2024. But mainland China remains the largest feeder market and the Macau government wants to change that.
Last year, mainlanders accounted for 70.1% of visitation. Hong Kongers were next at 20.6%. The remaining 9% included a mix of Taiwanese and global tourists, reports Macao News. And of 185,000 daily visitors bound for Macau during CNY, just 4.3% are expected to arrive from outside Asia.
That’s why Senna Fernandes has launched a campaign to promote Macau to overseas markets. In September 2024, she visited Cyprus as part of MGTO’s worldwide promotional road show, ‘Experience Macao Limited Edition’. Its aim is to cultivate new, high-value patrons from European and Arab countries.
The campaign will continue this year. By July, the MGTO will stage travel shows in Tokyo, Seoul, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta.
