Handle and revenue are usually the same each year in US sports betting. Analysts said in a Tuesday webinar that there were other patterns to be drawn from cycles.
Geoff Atkinson, Marketing Research Manager for Management Science Associates and Matt Roob are the presenters of this session entitled “A year in sports betting”. Atkinson, the Marketing Research Manager for Management Science Associates, and Roob are Senior Vice Presidents of Financial Analysis for Spectrum Gaming Capital. The analysts incorporated graphs and statistics compiled by Spectrumetrix into their presentation.
Atkinson started the discussion with graphs that broke down wagering data from individual states. Illinois, Mississippi Nevada South Dakota Oregon Montana and Montana were among the examples.
The US sport schedule showed that the patterns of the US states were similar.
The totals are at their lowest during the summer, when baseball is only one of the major sports in play. In the fall, football and basketball season start causing a surge that continues through to February. The NCAA March Madness brings a final spike in spring, before the cycle is repeated.
Different markets, different roles and differences in team success
When you look at the individual markets and sports, subtleties start to emerge.
Atkinson, for example, showed that, for March Madness betting, Oregon and Illinois had the lowest percentages compared with the overall handling for all six states. He said that this was probably due to the NBA teams in both of these states playing during the time period, while the other six do not.
All the states that were mentioned during the NFL fall/winter season showed the same trend, but analysts noticed the range of the percentages for football bets in the overall handling.
It was noted that team performances in certain markets played a role. Bettors from around the world place wagers in a large market such as Las Vegas on every team. The analysts found that bets on the NHL Las Vegas Golden Knights were largely unchanged in both 2022 and 2023. The team did not make the playoffs in 2022 but they won the Stanley Cup the following year.
In markets where locals are the main focus, it seems that team performance affects betting. Reno, for example, saw a marked increase in betting when the Nevada Wolf Pack Men’s Basketball team made the NCAA Tournament in 2023 compared to when they didn’t.
Using insights from states who don’t report sports
The analysts then applied these insights to other markets, which don’t break down their data by sports. These markets are more complex. There are two examples: higher betting totals in Indiana during the basketball season, as it is the most popular sport, and in Pennsylvania during football season, because there are only two NFL teams (Steelers & Eagles), and no recent successful sports in Pennsylvania.
The team performance also matters. In 2023, the Detroit market experienced a surge in betting on football thanks to the Lions 12-5 record and NFC Championship win. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, had flat numbers year over year as Steelers finished 9-8 in the previous two seasons and then 10-7.
