The 2024 U.S. presidential election is not only garnering the attention of registered voters nationwide but also bettors and traders looking to get in on the action.
Two major financial institutions — Kalshi and Robinhood — are taking advantage of a recent U.S. District Court ruling allowing the offering of event contracts on political markets, including the U.S. presidential election. The ruling was made as sports betting operators are barred from offering political betting markets as they are banned nationwide.
Kalshi and Robinhood are now taking advantage of the District Court’s ruling to provide political event contracts for what is poised to be a historic presidential race in 2024.
The District Court’s ruling is being appealed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission but Robinhood and Kalshi are proceeding to accept millions of contracts.
Kalshi reports close margins
Kalshi, which originally sparked the contentious legal battle on the issue, is recording considerable interest in its contracts for the presidential race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. As of noon on Election Day, Kalshi has accepted $250.5 million in contracts since opening their availability on Oct .4.
The average price of Trump’s shares during that time frame was $0.58 per share, while Harris’ shares on Kalshi were trading at $0.44.
The contracts have been purchased with 54% of buyers favoring Trump. The 44% margin for Harris marks growth for the presidential candidate. On Oct. 29, contracts on Kalshi were as high as 64% in favor of Trump with Harris left with the remaining 34%. Harris was able to close the gap even further on Nov. 3 with her garnering 50% of the contracts.
Robinhood starts strong
Robinhood has also reported considerable interest in its markets, which were made available to the public through its Robinhood Derivatives product. Robinhood has made election markets available for a limited number of customers who meet certain criteria.
The California-based company has accepted more than 100 million contracts on its platform since making them available last week, according to CEO Vlad Tenev. Robinhood has been allowing customers to trade its presidential contracts for 12 hours each day.
Robinhood plans to settle its contracts on Jan. 7 with payouts coming a day later.
Prediction market Polymarket is also getting in on the action. The New York-based financial exchange has reported a total $3.2 billion volume for its shares with 60% in favor of Trump. The shares for Trump on Nov. 5 were trading at $0.60 with Harris at $0.39.
