A match-fixing storm has recently engulfed football in Brazil with allegations of manipulation and lies providing a dramatic side plot to the upcoming launch of the country’s legal sports betting market. But is the problem actually as bad as feared?
If you ask people to name five things Brazil is most famous for, you’d be hard pressed to find someone who doesn’t mention football. The bright yellow shirts of the national football team are perhaps the most iconic around, with legendary players such as Pele and Ronaldo leading the Seleção to win five World Cups, the most of any country.
And yet, such a historic footballing nation has seen its most treasured sport thrown into disarray of late.
The row erupted when American businessman John Textor, owner of Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas, made allegations of match-fixing against São Paulo players. Textor claimed he had evidence they were bribed in a game against Palmeiras in which they lost 5-0. In addition, the owner said he had a recording of a referee being bribed.
Textor’s accusations sparked a furious response. Senator Jorge Kajuru asked federal police to summon Textor within 24 hours, claiming he would “have to be arrested” if his evidence wasn’t sufficient.
A parliamentary inquiry commission (CPI) on sports betting was set up to investigate match-fixing allegations. After Textor reiterated his claims, Palmeiras president Leila Pereira said the Botafogo owner should be banned if he didn’t present evidence. Kajuru went one step further, saying he should be expelled from Brazil altogether if the allegations weren’t found to be true.
This took a turn in July, when the Superior Court of Sports Justice (STJD) dismissed Textor’s allegations as “worthless”. The Botafogo owner came back claiming the auditor that produced the response was biased.
A real spat then, and one that comes after Brazil ranked third for suspicious sports betting alerts in the International Betting Integrity Association’s (IBIA) 2023 Integrity Report with 11 notifications, all of which came from football.
Storm at an inopportune time
The ongoing controversy over match-fixing is made even more tumultuous when considering Brazil’s status as an upcoming regulated betting market.
After years of delays, Brazil is finally set to launch its legal sports betting market on 1 January 2025. Unease over the integrity of Brazilian sports is therefore hugely worrying for regulators and other stakeholders in the market.
Rafael Marchetti Marcondes, chief legal officer at Rei do Pitaco as well as the Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR), believes such concerns could harm the overall health of the market, calling for immediate action.
“The manipulation of results, if not fought efficiently, tends in the medium and long term to generate a discrediting of Brazilian sport,” Marcondes tells iGB. “After all, manipulation removes from sport a central element: the unpredictability of the result.”
For operators, harm to the market would potentially cut into profits from what is set to be one of the most exciting sports betting jurisdictions worldwide.
A recent IBIA study estimated sports betting turnover in Brazil could reach $34bn (£26.8bn/€31.1bn) by 2028 with an onshore gross win of $2.8bn. The state would also be missing out, with the IBIA predicting tax contributions could hit $2.3bn in 2025, which is expected to be the first year of legal operations.
Why is Brazil seen as prone to match-fixing?
To find out how to fix manipulation issues, the ‘why’ of Brazil’s perceived problem comes into focus.
In 2016, the Brazilian Football Confederation (CBF) carried out a study on player’s salaries. The survey found 82% of players earned a maximum of BRL1,000 (£139.08/€161.82/$176.76) a month.
While it’s reasonable to expect wages to have progressed since 2016, Sportradar’s integrity partnership manager for Brazil Felippe Marchetti believes they are still a match-fixing factor.
“Economic instability at clubs and leagues and its resultant impact on the salaries and well-being of players, coaches, officials and even club executives can make them more susceptible to match-fixing approaches by organised crime groups and other opportunists as a means of making up for lost revenue,” Marchetti explains.
IBIA CEO Khalid Ali agrees low salaries make Brazilian players more vulnerable. Making players aware of the risks of manipulation is therefore crucial to solving the problem.
“Educating players and match officials is vital,” Ali explains. “IBIA is very aware of the positive impact this has from the many education projects we have been involved in, notably across Europe, and more recently North America with our commitment in Canada.”
Is it that bad?
It must also be noted however that Brazil is not the only country facing problems with match-fixing.
The UK for example led the way for suspicious alerts in the IBIA’s 2023 Integrity Report with 31, while the Czech Republic was second with 18, seven ahead of Brazil.
However Marcondes suggests criminal action relating to manipulation in Brazil seems higher than other places due to the sheer amount of games played in the country.
Ali agrees that Brazil’s role as a footballing powerhouse is largely responsible for its perception as having problems with match-fixing. “Brazil has a huge football pyramid which results in a much larger number of games being offered for betting relative to most other countries,” he says.
“Those matches are offered in betting markets around the world; it isn’t the availability of markets that is the issue, in fact the oversight it provides is part of the solution.”
For Marchetti, the lack of previous attention granted to prevention of manipulation has led to the ongoing problems.
“A lack of constant preventative measures, and the lack of historical regulation over sports betting in the country, plus the domestic set-up of football in Brazil, has enabled it to become a target,” Marchetti explains.
“The fact is that football in Brazil is now understanding that measures can be put in place and the football authorities are looking to deal with the issue more seriously in collaboration with other organisations.”
How is it rectified?
With a legal sports betting market coming soon, an understanding of how Brazil solves its problems with match-fixing becomes vital.
The CPI on sports betting is a step in the right direction and its president, Jorge Kajuru, says it will undertake the necessary work in collaboration with the Executive’s regulation to try and stamp out manipulation.
“The CPI can only have a positive impact,” Kajuru claims. “After all, the objectives of the two powers, of course, are the same, to ensure the integrity of football, an immense Brazilian cultural heritage.”
Kajuru agrees the number of games played in Brazil is a factor in its higher occurrences of match-fixing. He also feels though that punitive measures will not entirely solve the issue. “It’s a significant number [of allegations], which requires investigation so that the evidence is confirmed or not and those involved punished rigorously,” he continues.
“Punishment does not necessarily prevent the commission of a crime. This is part of the human condition. But the existing punishments are strict.”
For others, such as Marchetti Marcondes, the establishment of the CPI is just the first step necessary to fight match-fixing fears.
“We have to see the CPI only as a beginning of work, which should involve many other bodies, such as the federal police, the public prosecutor’s office, federations that organise the sport, clubs and society in general, in addition to the sports betting regulator.”
Sportradar’s match-fixing assistance
Sportradar is one of the companies leading the fight, including providing its bet monitoring services to Brazil’s top two divisions in both men’s and women’s football, as well as the Copa do Brasil tournament.
Such is Sportradar’s work in Brazil that Marchetti was called in front of the CPI in June as a witness to discuss match-fixing.
In his appearance, he highlighted education for players as a key solution, while notably saying Sportradar found no anomalies relating to manipulation in the company’s analysis of the games that Textor claims were fixed.
“As I stated to the CPI senators, I trust the Sportradar Integrity Services method, academically validated by CAS (Court of Arbitration for Sport) and The University of Liverpool,” Marchetti says.
“According to our methodology, nothing was found in the matches in question.”
The education Marchetti is calling for is already underway. In June, for example, Genius Sports launched an initiative with Botafogo, Textor’s team at the heart of the match-fixing controversy, aiming to inform players of the related risks.
Is enough being done to stamp out match-fixing in Brazil?
While the CPI is a sign of progress, with the legal sports betting market potentially less than five months away there’s a pressing need for match-fixing fears to be alleviated.
The IBIA’s work is a “clear and effective deterrent” in Ali’s view. It’s also been made mandatory for sports betting operators to join an independent integrity monitoring body.
For Ali, though, there’s still more to do in terms of interested parties working together.
“That must be underpinned by a wider collaboration between all key stakeholders to ensure that we are clear about the challenges and able to develop solutions,” Ali says.
Marchetti Marcondes believes it won’t be an easy fix, with further help needed for regulators to combat the issue.
“Today, the regulator’s major challenges are twofold.
“One is lack of resources to be able to invest in technologies that allow for more efficient combating of cases of manipulation, and two is lack of personnel and qualification for the team responsible for the subject. It will be necessary to invest time and resources to overcome these problems.”
Data and technology the weapons to fight match-fixing
A common belief is that technology and data is perhaps the most prominent and convenient tool available to ensure sporting integrity.
This forms part of Sportradar Integrity Services’ “holistic, multi-faceted” three-stage life cycle of how to approach match-fixing.
Prevention is the start of the cycle, with education given to outline the dangers. Second is monitoring and detection, where technology such as Sportradar’s AI is able to process over 500 data points a game using betting data to confirm “otherwise undetectable” suspicious betting activity. The final step is intelligence and investigation, for which Sportradar has a dedicated unit.
That three-pronged strategy is no doubt useful, although Marchetti is keen to emphasise the importance of other stakeholders’ own strategies to help in the overall battle for sporting integrity in Brazil.
“These three solutions are vital components to a successful strategy against match-fixing. However, it is the way that the specific sporting federation, or preferably a national regulator, implements their strategies that has the greatest impact.”
The fight against match-fixing in Brazil continues
While it may be Brazil’s footballing-mad culture itself that leads to its high number of detections, even one case of match-fixing is too many, especially when trust in a high-potential sports betting market is at stake.
There is a general optimism though that Brazil is on the right path towards stamping out cases of manipulation.
Regulation will help, as will the type of collaboration seen recently with Genius Sports announcing a global sports integrity partnership with the IBIA.
The acknowledgement that there is indeed a problem with match-fixing in Brazil is a key step and Marchetti gives the government credit for taking action that is already paying dividends, albeit on a short-term basis.
“So far, we have good news,” Marchetti says. “In the first half of 2024 there was a 60% reduction in the number of cases compared to the same period last year. We hope that our work and the awareness of those involved will contribute to the growth of these positive numbers in the country.
“Politicians are showing that they are concerned about the problem and that they want to collaborate to protect one of the cultural heritage of the country, football. Moreover, increased visibility of the topic and deepening investigations tend to ward off manipulators from the country.”
Brazil’s football betting market is at a critical juncture with match-fixing allegations threatening its integrity. However, with efforts from the CPI and various stakeholders, there’s optimism that collaborative measures and technological help will safeguard the market’s exciting future.
